Caulfield Review 30 May 2026 | Return for FTY in July

(The following review is what is provided to customers on Monday as a review of the metropolitan meeting from the weekend. But given it’s my last meeting for a month, it’s been provided to everyone with a view to what comes next!)

When I first started doing mounting yard analysis for a small syndicate, the theory was simple. “You assess the mounting yard and let the market act as your form guide.” That theory was sound, with some of the biggest and brightest syndicates waging war late and quite often that was the source of truth. Some of these syndicates are either no longer operating, or more so operating overseas, so the quality of the late market is likely less valid in 2026, but if they ever had a vulnerability it was to distinct track pattern and we saw some unique racing on Saturday at Caulfield.

What the data says:

*Utilising Punting Form’s wides data vs beaten margins and SP, settling forward was 1.2L disadvantaged

*there was an even spread of winners settling across the lanes throughout the day, although there was only two runners that settled rails in run (more on this later)

*the majority of winners finished in Lanes 16+ in the straight

What the yard indicated:

We’re getting to that time of year, where winter coats are coming through, horses are losing condition (albeit, a good meeting in that regard with few runners parading towards the lighter side), and changes in fitness, walk and attitude can count for a fair bit.

It didn’t matter what the yard suggested in race 9, an event so even that the market and yard couldn’t find any selections. But it was notable that the market had no idea what Jett Stanley was thinking, and on a day where the only two runners to settle rails in run were in race 1 and race 9, speaks volumes to the general respect the mostly younger jockeys have for Craig Williams who was angling wider from the start and they all followed. Jett took the shortcut in the freshest ground and was rewarded, and the market (either ignoring the change of tactics submitted or not factoring them in the first place) and his rivals had no idea what was happening.

What I got right:

Only one winning selection on the day with the default stakes but it was a good one, with Jimmy The Bear in race 5 just holding on late for a day defining result. He was marked equal top, with some fitness to come but his customary attitude on point, and an improved parade from his last time seen.

See The Storm in the same race got sweaty late and the former Euro had a neutral attitude at best, and perhaps I was a little kind in that regard. He came up a lay, as did Bustling in race 8 with a similar parade to what we saw first-up (and subsequently in an exhibition gallop at Sandown), but this was more in part due to the competitive Listed field he found himself in.

What I got wrong:

Race 3 was a complete mess and quite simply I stuffed it up late. Missing Clevor Trevor’s late but positive gallop-off before finalising numbers, with him 400m up the turn by his lonesome, only for two runners to be vetted pre-race and one of them in Celtics scratched as a single figure chance was quite annoying. In the end it didn’t impact things too greatly, as the race was too even to find him, but it’s something I’ll be trying to improve for the service in the coming weeks (attempting to link up a script to import instantaneous Betfair odds, to quickly account for late scratchings). But the main thing is ensuring that these late gallopers can be factored in, and as it was, it was the only positive gallop off on the day.

Horses of note to follow:

R3: Yes Yoshi was a much improved physical parade vs Flemington, was held up at key stages and still found late. Not sure if the wet track was suitable either.

R5: Jimmy The Bear as mentioned had fitness in hand, and he’s such a consistent parader and performer when he’s in the zone. In the same race, El Rocko almost always has some degree of ‘walk’ to his parade, but he didn’t on Saturday (despite being marked the same score as previous, as he had generally better physical conditioning and attitude). He had a long preparation last year, and this prep has only been short in comparison, but I’d want to see that walk again before chiming in with him.

R6: Simurgh, is now at complete top and managed to hold off Skippers Canyon, both having improved since last seen. The Hayes team are typically some of the better conditioners of horses so I would imagine Simurgh will hold that level for another start or two at least.

R7: some of the better parades on the card, with Bred ‘em All first time seen and an impressive athlete, and potentially one better suited on a dryer surface. High On The Hill was good again, one of the ‘nice’ Wootton Bassett colts.

R8: very difficult trying to assess Title Fighter, the gelding constantly bucking and kicking back in the stables, but kicking two poles in the process. Was that uncharacteristic behaviour (of late anyway) a positive sign or was he in a foul mood? Not sure if he was vetted, but he should have been, and didn’t do much back towards the inside of the field. If he finds a more suitable field on a dryer surface next time out, I’d likely want him on-side just in case.

Coming up next: 

That’s me done for a month, and this time of year is as good as any to have a break. It’s been an enjoyable start to the year, with plenty of nice horses and races and June will provide an opportunity to freshen-up before planning a return on July 4 at Flemington. That will be confirmed in the coming weeks, and I’ll send an email blast when the latest meetings are available in the shop. Until then, good punting!